The big question in the British political world (apart from what will happen to the so-called Tea Party Movement if the Conservatives actually win that election) is why are those Conservatives doing so badly.
James Forsyth thinks that they are over the worst wobble or will be if the YouGov track tonight shows them at being back to six points ahead of Labour. As he acknowledges himself, that is clutching at straws. Six points is almost statistical parity and does not indicate that they will win that election in two months' time. Unless they pull themselves together, work out what they are doing wrong (something they are showing no sign of doing) and turn it all round, they might not even get the largest number of seats. Actually, I still think they probably will but the majority is becoming questionable.
In his long article in the latest Spectator magazine [not on line yet though his other articles show his weary attitude to the Tories] James Forsyth writes about all the things Cameron and his immediate entourage have got wrong. At least he partially answers that question: just how can the opposition to a failed and unpopular government not be able to pull ahead.
It would appear from Mr Forsyth's article that in a somewhat panicky mode, the Boy-King and his able lieutenants, Georgie-Porgie Osborne, wonderboy Steve Hilton, Andy Coulson (ex-News of the World editor) and one other, whose name I have forgotten, are resorting to desperate measures. They are talking to their backbench MPs; during last week's Shadow Cabinet meeting, everyone spoke or was allowed to speak, which was so astonishing the journos had to be told.
Well, it's a start. Now all the Boy-King has to do is stop telling the electorate that they are really stupid and do not understand the wonders of Conservative .... errrm .... policies. He has two months.
One of the innovations, according to Mr Forsyth is a greater role allotted to Michael Gove in the management of the campaign. Mr Gove is an able and attractive politician who often talks sense. He is also Shadow Secretary for Children, Schools and Families, what used to be known as Education. Hmmm. I wonder how he sees his future.
UPDATE: Those new polls do, indeed, show a 5 per cent and a 7 per cent lead. In other words, teh 2 per cent poll was a rogue one but the situation is not much better. Opinion polls have a 3 or 4 per cent error margin so these results are not far off statistical parity. The comments agonize over the fact that the Boy-King's Brighton speech has had no effect and what effect will the Ashcroft story (whose details I have forgotten but it is something to do with non-dorm tax payer and contributions to the Conservative or any other party) will have. Answer, very little. Most people do not follow the minutiae and were probably not aware of that speech. That's what comes from having too many conferences.