Looks like we shall have to get used to another name

Not King Juan Carlos, who, when all is said and done, has served his country and his people well, but King Felipe. We shall have to see how smooth the transition will be, given Spain's slightly tumultous twentieth century history.

All this secession stuff creates problems

Catalonia is unhappy. Actually, they have never been all that happy about being part of Spain but in the last few years they have acquired certain rights, for example that of using their own language, which had been banned under Franco and for some years afterwards. However, they are beginning to feel that the few concessions they have received is not enough. What an ungrateful lot, to be sure. They say they will be calling a referendum on independence next year about the same time that Scotland will have one though the cases are somewhat different: Scotland is not the richest part of the United Kingdom and its independence is unlikely to worry investors too much, whereas the loss of Catalonia will deal a very heavy blow to the already weak Spanish economy.

As EUObserver says:

The secessionist movement in Spain’s wealthiest region gained momentum last week after a million people locked hands to form a 400km human chain on its "border" with Spain.

Some of the organisers called for a referendum while others demanded immediate independence.

The demonstration, held on Catalonia’s national day, was a symbolic reference to the 1989 Baltic Way 600km human chain which demanded independence from the Soviet Union.

The Spanish Prime Minister says that only the Spanish government in Madrid has the right to call a referendum so all these demands are nonsense. (And we know from their attitude to Gibraltar how much attention the Spanish government pays to referendums.)

Another problem has reared its head, as described by the Wall Street Journal and EUObserver.

The European Commission's vice president said Spain's wealthy region of Catalonia would have to leave the European Union if it declared independence, remarks that disappointed many in the growing Catalan secessionist movement.

"If one part of a territory of a member state decides to separate, the separated part isn't a member of the European Union," Joaquín Almunia said on Monday during a conference in Barcelona, in one of the strongest statements on the issue by a leader of the EU's administrative body.

The EU,as we know is all in favour of strengthening regions just as long as they don't get above themselves and start demanding that they should be seen as member states. After all, what the EU wants to do away is member states, turning them into subsidiary organizations of varying sizes but all integrated into a harmonized EU. They do not want another uppity nation state messing things up at various levels.

Catalan politicians are not happy:

In an op-ed in the New York Times last week, Catalan president Artur Mas described Catalonia as a European Union partner for strengthened political unity, security and economic growth.

He said the region is bound to Spain through history and close family ties, but wants to have more control over its own economy, social services, and politics.

He noted that Catalonia pays out more on average than other regions to the central government but receives less public expenditure per capita in return.

The region fought for the Second Republic in the Spanish Civil War from 1936 to 1939, but its defeat led to the Catalan language being outlawed under Francisco Franco’s 40-year military rule.

Catalonia's autonomy and language was not recognised again until 1978.

“Catalans are deeply pro-European and we do not imagine a future outside the European Union,” said Mas in the US op-ed.

Catalonia's pro-independence regional government economics secretary, Andreu Mas-Colell, who attended the Almunia conference, shared the sentiment.

He said Catalans belong inside Europe and that Alumnia’s statement is based on a strict legal reading.

Nor are the Catalans getting much support from those Baltic States they wish to emulate.

The press in Spain had given ample coverage to comments supporting the right of self-determination attributed to Lithuanian Prime Minister Algirdas Butkevicius, who occupies the EU's rotating presidency.

On Monday, Lithuania's Foreign Ministry posted a statement expressing "concern over the tendentious and erroneous interpretation" by the Spanish press over the Lithuanian position.

The statement said, "The Soviet occupation of the Baltic nations cannot be compared with the situation in Spain. Spain is the democratic country, a member of the European Union, our close partner in the EU and NATO."

It said all domestic matters in Spain "should be resolved according to democratic and legal measures that exist within the country, respecting the Constitution."

How will this affect matters in Scotland? As the Scotsman pointed out, this adds to the uncertainty.

The SNP Government hopes to negotiate its EU membership – including opt-outs from the euro, free travel areas and a budget cut – in the period between the referendum in September 2014 and its proposed independence day in March 2016 if Scots vote Yes.

But the future status of an independent Scotland’s place in Europe remains unresolved.

Can we, therefore, assume that any region of any member state breaking away from it loses its place in the European Union? Dear me. Have we not heard from various politicians including Hizonner the Mayor of London that EU membership is harmful to London and especially the City? Well, here is the answer. Let London declare independence from the UK, defenstrate the Westminster politicians and Whitehall civil servants, and the EU will declare that London can no longer be part of it. And the Porcine Aviation Force will take off in large numbers.

Catching up on the Gibraltar story

The UK has sent HMS Westminster to Gibraltar or, to be precise, to take part in the Cougar '13 naval exercise. This seems to signal to the media that the situation is getting more tense. Meanwhile, Spain is bringing out the heavy artillery: it is threatening to take its case to the UN where it will have one ally at least, Argentina.

Earlier, newspaper El País said Spain could take the matter to the International Court of Justice, the UN General Assembly or the UN Security Council, where Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García Margallo will seek support from Argentina, which is serving a term.

However, other players have entered the game. We hear from EUObserver that Catalan separatists have expressed solidarity with the people of Gibraltar.

Party leader Alfred Bosch told Gibraltar:"Your freedom is our freedom."

Quite so. May I call his and everybody else's attention to this blog's title. Meanwhile, there is a possibility that Morocco might start stirring in the matters of Ceuta and Melilla, which are inexplicably continue to be Spanish possessions.

Samir Bennis, a Moroccan and political adviser on Arab affairs at the UN in New York, said Spain operated “double standards” by dismissing Moroccan sovereignty claims over Ceuta and Melilla as unfounded while pursuing its own claim over Gibraltar.

He gives a kind of an explanation for this anomalous situation:

“What mattered most during the Sixties and Seventies when such things were discussed was for Morocco to recover its territories in the south, including the Spanish protectorate of the Western Sahara,” Mr Bennis, who has published books on the subject, told the British newspaper.

“That was cleverly exploited by Spain who persuaded Morocco not to take the matter of Ceuta and Melilla up with the UN but agree to make it a strictly bilateral issue between Spain and Morocco.”

Will the UN now take up the matter of Ceuta and Melilla? Will it take up the matter of Western Sahara, whose people might not want to be part of Morocco?

How can this happen in the EU?

I am shocked, I tell you, shocked. The European Union was going to bring peace and plenty to all European nations; milk and honey would flow through the land; and old enmities would die. Let's not discuss the problems of milk subsidies and the apparent shortage of honey bees - let us concentrate on those old enmities. The old enmity that is between Spain and the UK and revolves round the rock of Gibraltar.

It cannot have escaped the notice of this blog's readers that the Spanish government is at it again. To be absolutely accurate, it is trying to deflect attention from various domestic problems such as "recession and corruption allegations that have led to a collapse in the popularity of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy" by beating the ward drums over Gibraltar.

On Sunday, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo warned that "the midday break" for the U.K. was over, a reference to what he called ineffective policies in defense of Spanish interests by the country's previous government, which left office in December 2011.

The immediate "cause" of the dispute is the artificial reef being built by the Gibraltarians, which, they maintain, will attract fish and make fishing easier and which, the Spanish maintain, will make their fishermen's lives more difficult. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo said that

Spain was mulling a €50 border-crossing fee and tax investigations of thousands of Gibraltarians who own property in Spain. A border fee would affect tourists and Gibraltarians who cross the border for work.

Gibraltar has complained to the European Commission over what it says are unreasonable controls at the border, saying they violate European Union rules on free circulation.

Spain was also considering closing airspace to planes heading for the airport in Gibraltar and changing rules to wring taxes from on-line gaming companies based in Gibraltar, he said.

Whether the people of Spain will be taken in by this carefully timed sabre rattling remains to be seen. For the moment,

"The prime minister has made clear that the U.K. government will meet its constitutional commitments to the people of Gibraltar and will not compromise on sovereignty," the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office said in a statement Sunday. "Our differences with Spain on Gibraltar will be resolved by political means through our relationship as EU partners, not through disproportionate measures such as the border delays we have seen over the past week."

But, surely, this is not the sort of thing that should be happening in the EU, anyway.

Where are we on prime ministerial resignations?

Reuters reports that another Prime Minister, this time the Spanish one, is under some pressure to resign. So far, he is holding the line, admitting nothing or saying "if you please ma'am, it was only a little one" and definitely not resigning as that might jeopardize his career his reforming polices.

The scandal this time is not to do with convoluted political corruption as in the Czech Republic or with "illegal security agency activity such as phone-taps and corruption", as in Luxembourg, where the venerable Claude Juncker has temporarily retired from active politics.

The Spanish story is about money going into ... ahem ... wrong hands.

[Prime Minister Mariano] Rajoy has so far limited the impact of the scandal, which involves alleged illegal donations by construction magnates that were supposedly distributed as cash payments to party leaders in return for juicy contracts.

The former party treasurer, Luis Barcenas, is now inside a prison for "charged with bribery, money laundering, tax fraud and other crimes" and, it seems, that there were close contacts between the Prime Minister and the former party treasurer.

Once again: the Prime Minister of Spain is a member of our real government.

Catalonia votes for sovereignty

Thanks to a reader of the blog, the real news of yesterday has not been lost. Catalonia has voted for sovereignty. The article is in Spanish but one can ask the site to do a somewhat inadequate translation that will give the gist of it.

The division into the two main parties in Catalonia, Convergence and Union and Partit dels Socialistes , yesterday marked what was to be a historic day in Parliament. Catalan The House overwhelmingly approved with 85 votes in favor (CiU, ERC, Initiative and a deputy of the CUP), 41 against (PSC, Partido Popular, Ciutadans) and two abstentions (CUP), the text proclaims the "legal and political sovereignty of the Catalan people" . The resolution marks the path to self-determination consultation, scheduled for 2014. The specific date is not in the text, it does not solve the legal reserve of the vote. He argues that "use all existing legal frameworks to enforce the right to choose." The proclamation states that will seek dialogue with the "Spanish State, the European institutions and the international community as a whole" to legitimize the process.

Presumably the self-determination consultation will be a referendum or, as I mostly prefer to call it, a plebiscite. All sorts of interesting issues will then arise to do with EU membership, the Spanish debt and a few others.

Spanish economy in free-fall

This does not come as a surprise to anyone but here are some interesting graphs about the Spanish economy, published by The Atlantic.

To sum up: The overall unemployment rate is in the mid-20s, industrial production and services activity have both cratered, construction indicators like cement consumption have been devastated after doubling between 1998 and 2007, retail is in a free fall, and exports (most of which go to Europe) are falling. [Word of warning: None of these graphs have the same Y-axis range, so beware direct comparisons.]

In the next year, Spain is meant to cut spending to show the bond market that Madrid can stabilize its all-important ratio of debt to GDP. But what Spain really needs today is what it had 10 years ago: Lots of money flowing into the country! Spanish leaders know the intricacies of Spanish economics far better than I ... but I do know something about ratios, and if your GDP isn't growing, it's rather impossible to increase your GDP faster than your debt.

Spain has avoided an even worse recession, if you can believe it, by growing exports in every year since the housing crash. But even here, trouble lurks. As you can see (bottom-right graph in the collection above), export growth is slowing down as the nation's largest trade partners -- in order: France, Germany, Portugal, Italy, and the UK, which account for more than half of Spanish exports -- all face austerity regimes of their own, which is likely to make businesses and consumers cut back on Spanish goods. In a word: Yikes.

I have noticed that there are more Spanish youngsters working in various low-skill jobs in London than there had been for years. They are competing with the Poles and, personally, I think the Poles are more efficient, friendlier and better at learning English. However, that is, undoubtedly, a sign of the times.

Spanish practices

I don't really need to blog about this as it is posted over on Fisheries - Truth and Fiction. But as we listen to all the waffle about the CFP reform, it is worth having a look at the reality as far as the biggest and most rapacious of the fleets is concerned.

The news from Spain is not very good

Moody is threatening to downgrade Spain. Apparently, the latest Greek bail-out rescue package has done nothing to stop the eurozone problems. One can't help wondering whether anybody at all is surprised by that.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Zapatero has dissolved Parliament and has called an election for November 20, about six months before it was due. The right-wing People's Party (Partido Popular) who won a resounding victory in May's local elections is hopeful that they will be forming the next Spanish government (though why anyone should wish for that particular poisoned chalice is a mystery). Various politicians in that party maintain that they will manage to pass the necessary reforms to sort out Spain's economy this time round.

Do I hear the word insane?

For obvious reasons I usually attack left-wing feminist organizations that tend to side with Islamist groups and states in their insane hatred for America, the West in general and Israel. In order to express that hatred they manage to ignore the way women are treated in Islamic societies and even Islamic groups in the West. In other words, they just do not care about Muslim women and their very basic rights to life and liberty.

There are other organizations of that kind around. The Guardian reports that organizers of the Gay Pride parade in Madrid have banned Israeli participants because of the events that surrounded the Gaza flotilla. Needless to say, that means there were no organized groups from the Middle East participating in the march because Israel is the only country in the region where you can have Gay Pride marches, where you do not run the risk of being tortured and murdered if you are openly gay. Yet the Madrid organizers side with the murderers of people like themselves. One can only surmise that they do not care about the fate of gays as long as they are Muslims. Can we call that racist?

Oh honestly!

First it was Greek MPs proclaiming that Germany should be made to salvage their economy after their shoddy behaviour (in the private sector in a number of countries that kind of behaviour earns you many years behind bars) as a form of reparation for what happened well over 60 years ago and for which they had already had reparation.

Now it is the Spanish Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, ordering the National Intelligence Cente (CNI) to investigate whether the Anglo-Saxon media is conspiring to undermine the Spanish economy, as if he needed any help in that. Soeren Kern goes into detail on the story. And I thought our politicians were dulalee.