Well d'uh!

EUObserver reports that the latest Eurobarometer survey has produced some ..... fairly predictable results.

While 80 percent of Swedes and 77 percent of Germans expressed confidence about the state of their country's economy, this contrasted with only 1 percent of Spaniards, and 2 percent of Cypriots and Greeks.

Respondents from the crisis countries were also far more likely to feel disconnected from EU decision making, according to the eurobarometer survey released Tuesday (23 June).

Two thirds responded negatively to the question "my voice counts in the European Union", including 89 percent of Cypriots and Greeks.

I wonder if there is a reason for those opinions and their geographical spead.

Self-delusion or self-interest

As readers of this blog know I tend to be very sceptical, indeed, of Conservative eurosceptics and of the various front organizations, especially those who deliberately fudge the issue of supporting a referendum with pulling out. I have written about that too many times to link to all the postings but should my readers wish to do so, I can.

The latest brouhaha about half those asked being in favour of withdrawal because of the economic mess on the Continent is a good example of that fudge. As I said to the East European Furniture Polish campaign:

A referendum campaign is not the same as an understanding of how we get out and what that entails or even the need to get out; an opinion poll or even two, are not the same as winning that referendum as a quick perusal of past opinion polls including 1975 would show you; and "doing something" is not the same as doing the right thing.

It is not, of course, in their interest to unravel these contradictions. All the more reason why we should do so.

EUReferendum, as one would expect has done so citing interesting parallels with the situation in 1974-75. Let me just add one rather depressing thing: in 1975 the No campaign was better organized and, above all, had better arguments than an Out campaign would have now. It did not help them.

To those who say that even if we lose a referendum, it is worth trying and we would be no worse off, I can only reply: we would be back in the position people were in 1975 with the European project far more advanced. We would be considerably worse off.

We have a long way to go

The EU Referendum Campaign (most definitely not to be confused with the Boss's domain) has proudly announced the results of the first opinion poll they commissioned. Apparently, 74 per cent of those asked said that the money we send to the EU would be better spent dealing with our own debt. The only thing I can ask is what about the other 26 per cent? Do they really think this is a good way of wasting taxpayers' money?

Going on from there we find that

68% of the British Public want Britain to demand an immediate reduction in our contribution to the EU Budget.

Well, they are not going to get that. Au contraire. Contributions are going up, as we know. The only question is by how much. However, once again, the question of the other 32 per cent arises. Do they not want to reduce our contribution? How very odd.

I am, however, a little puzzled by the statement made by Jon Gaunt, the public face of the campaign.

It's now crystal clear that the majority of British people want the £48 million we send every day to Brussels to be spent here in Britain on vital services. How will Britain feel when an EXTRA £450 million is sent to Brussels next year? Surely David Cameron cannot ignore the will of the British people... it's time he gave us our say on the EU.

So, our options are spending taxpayers' money on EU projects or letting the government spend taxpayers' money on wasteful and inefficient projects of the kind that have sapped this country's will to live and prosper. And then we wonder why the Tea Party Movement has no chance of taking off in Britain.

You can see the actual data here.

Situation remains foggy

Both the Times and ConHome headline the latest Populus poll as showing, most importantly, that Labour's class war attack on David Cameron and his background leaves voters cold. Peter Riddell in the Times says: "David Cameron rides out Labour's 'toff' attack", while Jonathan Isaby on ConHome gets garrulous: "Tory lead 8% in new Populus poll which shows voters unenthused by Labour's class warfare". Well, yes. The only problem is that this does not show voters enthusing about the Conservatives either as a number of commenters have pointed out.

At this stage of the game, six months or so away from the election, in the middle of a serious financial crisis, towards the end of the third term of a highly unpopular government, the official opposition cannot muster more than 40 per cent and often, as in this case, less.

It is true that the majority seems remarkably unfazed by the hardly secret fact that Cameron was at Eton. Blair had been at Fettes and the Labour Party has a few public school boys and girls. Harriet Harman, for instance, comes from a very posh background and was educated at St Paul's Girls' School, which is not your average comprehensive. She just does not seem to have done much with the excellent education that school provides.

So it is official: class war resonates with very few people these days. That's the good news. The rest of the news is a little hard to analyze. In fact, it is all befogged. Opinion polls move one per cent here, two per cent there but none of that detail is important. These are all within the error margin. The fact that 12 per cent said that they would vote for some other party ought to cause some concern to the big guys, particularly, as I suspect a majority of that is talking of voting UKIP.

As things stand, Conservatives will probably be the largest party in the House of Commons after the next election. Whether that will mean an overall majority is now questionable, particularly as that gap is likely to narrow even more with the approach of polling day. Will there be a hung Parliament or a minority government? Anything is possible on the basis of recent figures even a surge in Tory support. Possible but not very likely unless the Conservative leadership abandons its self-righteous vacuity and comes up with some reasons why people should vote for them. A referendum on the European Union or, at least, the Constitutional Lisbon Treaty would be a start.