Friday, March 1, 2013

"Small earthquake"

Curiously enough, Nigel Farage, the Great Helmsman of UKIP, seems to be more rational about his party's achievement yesterday than many of the members and even the media whose endless repetition of the words UKIP and surge hide the fact that actually it did not go very far.

Mr Farage, on the other hand, is uncharacteristically modest in today's Evening Standard. Having in the past predicted repeatedly an earthquake in British politics caused by his party and throngs of Conservative MPs joining his party, on the day after UKIP had achieved its best result in a by-election, their Leader merely predicted an earthquake in next year's European elections.

By this, I assume he means that UKIP will come first among the parties. That is not unlikely as they came second last time.

All the same, a sitting MEP of some experience ought to know that even if UKIP wins every single British seat in the European Parliament (an inherently unlikely scenario) it will not make a scrap of difference to anything that happens in that body or in the European Union as a whole. He has said this frequently himself in that speech he has given up and down the country.

What was that headline Claud Cockburn invented: "Small earthquake in Chile. Not many dead."

13 comments:

  1. Classic. The European Parliament is meaningless, so does it really matter who actually sits in the thing?

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  2. The problem surely is that the political pundits with acres of print to fill and a desire to create a sensation have a story they can really milk. Until very very recently, a by-election like this (in a seat which can be said to have been a two-horse race) would see vast campaigns by the two most likelies and all the rest would have fallen before the race had started (witness the Winchester by-election in 97 and others since). Even the other Westminster party would be frozen out and left behind, which is why a landslide Labour party in 97 saw its Winchester candidate lose votes only weeks later. A year or so ago UKIP were regularly getting very small percentages of the vote, as they had been doing for years. But recently this has altered dramatically and there is undoubtedly a changed situation, granted the actual numbers as opposed to percentages. The fact that it is completely new is bound to create comment...along with the extreme hype of course.

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  3. Just an additional point - if you look at the wikipedia list of UK by-elections since 79, you can see the new pattern of UKIP rising beginning to emerge in a very small way from not long after the 2010 election - to some degree fulfilling what many said during Labour's long period in office that UKIP's day would come when people realised that their idea that the Tories will deliver will be disproved. However ,the Norwich by-election a year earlier had given them the highest ever by-election vote, but all other by-elections of that time were the standard tiny percentage.

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  4. Just looked up the Norwich by-election. I forgot how well UKIP did there. Not that it made any difference. It is true that once the Conservatives under the Boy-King did exactly what we all predicted they would do, UKIP has been performing well(ish) in by-elections. The trouble is that it is not well enough as it is not getting them anywhere near a seat in the Commons or getting them there so slowly that the Conservative-led government will be over and done with before we see any real result. They could have won in Rotherham and they expected to win in Eastleigh. In fact, Farage was predicting that to almost the last minute. Now he has scaled his predictions back quite considerable, which makes one wonder. Has he finally realized that boasting of something that just keeps not happening is not such a great idea, despite his buddies in the media picking up on it?

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    1. Indeed not well enough yet but getting closer...and much closer than I would have thought, say, this time last year. And of course in the febrile world of party politics with everyone analysing even the tiniest drifts, the headless chickens will undoubtedly be in the ascendant at Tory HQ right now. Making matters worse for the Boy-King is that grassroots Tories, even quite loyal ones, are saying "we told you so" and "why can't you..."? The fact that that the leadership does not respond convincingly (often because it cannot and will not admit that EU demands trump them) makes the former stalwarts less inclined to be supportive and more inclined to desert next time. Until very very recently many said "I support you but will not vote for you because you have no chance". Collectively, people are beginning to think differently now and it is fascinating. And yes that Norwich by-election was interesting...

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  5. It matters how UKIP do. It matters because it they are a source of pressure on Tories. If UKIP start to become a serious political factor in the South and for all parties, not just Tories, then they in turn will have to become more serious. This may break them but it might also force the Tories towards Article 50 and EEA, which is politically credible and potentially winnable.

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    1. Well, we shall see. A party is a serious political force when it starts winning. Not coming second but winning. When all the tumult and the shouting dies we have what? The Lib-Dems have retained their seat after everyone said they were finished. It is possible that, as Damian says, people are beginning to think differently but not enough of them are. Too many prefer not to vote at all. In any case, the real test will be the General Election. Will UKIP manage to poll about a quarter of the votes and what will that do to the seats? At present, I still maintain, they are in no man's land.

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  6. it's that same problem - the things that attract to Farage are offset by the things that put people off.

    To some this cheeky chappie, all-drinking and smoking, Libertarian is a major attraction, but we are talking about a leader of a political party that may hold a degree of power.

    Parading down the streets of Brussels with the euro in a coffin, or dressing up in chicken costumes, just doesn't portray the gravitas required.

    I'm firmly of the conviction that UKIP is sometimes surviving because of the dogged loyalty of its members - not a leadership that is ignoring a mass of talent out there in the real world.

    Oh, Diane James - marvellous candidate.

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  7. I have to agree with you that they are still in no-man's land. They are. I just maintain that there is a difference between passing through the wire on your side, hiding in a fox-hole half-way across and trying to get through the wire on the enemy's side so you can get into his trenches. (They are nearly through the wire, to torture the metaphor.) The fact that Farage has played Eastleigh down (somewhat), as you point out, does make me feel that they at least think that they have an unprecedented amount of momentum. The Euro elections are I think certain to be a bloodbath for the Tories as expected but if they are also bad or even very bad in places for the other two main parties then UKIP will start to look be a winner all-round and a potentially serious contender for Westminster seats. With the perception of electoral seriousness comes electoral seriousness, and if the MSM et al continue to ignore UKIP or better yet characterise them as nutcases etc then so much the better for UKIP and their support from people who feel their concerns are also ignored and vilified. Another point I think is worth making: they do need to win but they came second with 11,000 votes, not second in a Labour-held area with 2,000 votes. There is I think a quantative difference in that. They outpolled the Tories in a seat the Tories need to win and have held. They came from nowhere in 2010 to 11,000 votes and being narrowly beaten. They took big votes off everyone. Farage's killer line and Cameron's suicidal response might just mark the moment when torch passes from one party to another in many peoples' minds. Weird stuff is happening. Beppe Grillo is proof of that. Let's see what happens!

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  8. Nearly through the wire on the enemy's side, that should have been.

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  9. Quantitative (sigh)

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  10. I shall not attempt to rival that metaphor, Corin. ;) But I think some of your points are out of date. It is simply not true that the MSM ignores them. Not a day goes by without Farage appearing somewhere or other or being asked his opinion on something or other. They had enormous amount of coverage during the by-election with serious opinion suggesting that they may well win. They didn't win and did not actually come all that close. After the election, most of the media coverage was about UKIP. So that excuse had better be laid aside.

    They have been doing well in the euros for some time, coming second behind the Conservatives in the last election, so coming first will not change the game materially, because the euros do not matter. Farage must know that, surely.

    I am intrigued by this unwonted modesty after the blustering of years. Possibly UKIP will finally take off now and win the odd seat or two at some point, though it has to be in a by-election. I really don't see them doing it in the GE, no matter how well they do in the euros. Or, this might be the high point. I hope not, obviously, but I do not think they are, at this stage, as important a force in politics as the media seem to think they are. In the end, what matters is that it is the Lib-Dems who held the seat.

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  11. Perhaps you are right. It does take time for tribal Tories to get to the point of no return though, especially in a seat that the Conservative party could/does win. I think larger numbers than ever are getting there. What that means for the other parties, who knows?

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