Um, no it doesn't

EurActiv quotes Norway’s minister for EEA and EU Affairs, Vidar Helgesen, on the subject of Brexit and the debates around them.

Three things need to be said before we look at what Mr Helgesen said. Firstly, the country he represents is not a member of the EU because its people have consistently voted against that membership; secondly, the country has remained an active player on the international scene; and thirdly, despite what the article says, Brexit has not been "high on the British election campaign agenda" precisely because David Cameron promised "an in/out referendum on the UK's EU membership if he is re-elected". What was relatively high on the agenda was the referendum and whether one should be held. The question of Brexit itself was neatly shelved for the time being.

Nevertheless, it seems that Mr Helgesen is sufficiently worried to issue a warning.

But Helgesen says there are some important aspects of EU membership that have been left out of the British debate so far.

For example, a British exist - or 'Brexit' - could leave the UK out of the comprehensive trade agreement being negotiated with the United States.

'Brexit' would also leave the UK out of important EU foreign ministers meetings addressing the standoff with Russia over Ukraine.

“Leaving that position of influence… I have a hard time seeing that. I don’t think it would serve Europe, but ultimately that is the British people who should determine that,” he said.

I am not sure what of the debate Mr Helgesen has been reading but the questions of defence, security and foreign policy have come up a few times and discussed from various angles.

As for the position of influence (I am aware that I have not completed my discussion of that subject), one has to say that within the EU's common foreign policy Britain has about zero, unlike the influence and, indeed, the choice of action it has within NATO.

Still it is good of Mr Helgesen to admit that it is the British people who should determine that. Just as the Norwegian people have determined twice that this was not for them.

The new Norwegian government

Erna Solberg, the new Prime Minister of Norway has formed her government, giving two key portfolios, finance and oil, to the smaller partner, the Progressive Party. Siv Jensen is the new Finance Minister. (This is what I wrote about her some years ago and this more recently.)

The new government, promising to lower taxes, reduce the economy's reliance on the vast oil sector, invest heavily in infrastructure and curtail immigration, now has just a few weeks to revise the outgoing government's 2014 budget to reflect its own policies.

This will be a minority government but that is not so unusual in Nordic countries (used to happen here as well)and, in any case, "the Conservatives have enlisted the formal outside backing of the Liberals and the Christian Democrats to ensure stability". And no, before you ask, the question of EU membership is not on the agenda.

Centre-Right wins in Norway

The BBC reported just about half an hour ago that

Norway's Labour Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg has admitted defeat in Monday's general election.

The Conservatives and their allies have won a majority of the seats in parliament, according to official projections with most votes counted.

Erna Solberg, who heads the Conservative Party, is widely expected to form a government with the anti-immigration Progress Party.

No point in asking about potential EU membership. That is not even part of Norway's political dialogue any more.

More on Jagland

In my previous posting I mentioned that the Chairman of the Norwegian Peace Prize Committee had an interesting political career. I was then accused of being coy by a regular reader of this blog who also sent me some more information about the man. Now, up with that sort of accusation I will not put. Here is the information sent to me in full:

Apart from a history of general incompetence and sloth, including started but never finished studies in economics, Jagland was a "confidential KGB source" (or as Lenin would have called him, a useful idiot). Internally in KGB he went under the call name "Juri" and was a useful source for political information. According to reports he had also been used as a "channel for active measures", including the question of nuclear free zones in the Nordic countries. These contacts were brought to light by the Soviet defector Mikhail Butkov.

Jagland defended himself that he did not do anything but his normal duties, and though he never reported his contacts to the Norwegian security services, he did report to the people in charge of the Norwegian Labour party. (Hoops!) In the same program on Norwegian television that Butkov and Jagland were discussed, Jens Stoltenberg also was mentioned - another Labour party luminary. Those who follow Norwegian politics may recognise him as the present Norwegian PM.

Quote (my transl): "Jens Stoltenberg's contact with the KGB officer Boris Kirillov led to KGB in 1989 giving him the cover/file name "Steklov". A dossier on Stoltenberg was put together at the Centre in Moscow containing personal and political information. The dossier was of the form DOR (Delo operativnoj razrabotki). These kind of files were usually restricted to people in an advanced state of cultivation, or persons already counted as confidential sources.

Looks like Arne Treholt was not alone - he was just unlucky to get caught.

I am grateful for that information and for being reminded that I should not write lazily.

It's an ill wind ...

The news of the Nobel Peace Prize being awarded to the EU, apart from causing a great deal of entertainment, has also provided the Leader of UKIP with a great deal of publicity. He seems to be the top man to be quoted everywhere, for instance in this headline on AFP: Farage and Redwood condemn EU Nobel Peace Prize. There are many more as a brief consultation with Mr Google will show. (So, can we have no more nonsense about UKIP not getting any media attention, please?)

Glenn Reynolds weighs in on the debate as to what is more embarrassing, awarding that prize to President Obama less than a year after his inauguration or to the EU."AT LEAST WHEN THEY GAVE OBAMA THE PRIZE, HE HADN’T FAILED YET." Hadn't thought of it in those terms but he is right.

Frida Ghitis argues that the Committee lost an excellent opportunity to show that it really believes in peace and freedom. True, but hardly for the first time though, possibly, Ms Ghitis did not notice it before. Or, maybe, she mentions this every year.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, the Director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, was interviewed on the subject and sounded a little bemused, not to say irritated. He also pointed to an important aspect:

It's a bit different, though, in Norway and internationally. In Norway, this decision is deemed to stir considerable controversy, precisely because the issue of EU membership is so controversial in Norway, and many critics here see this already as the politicians on the Nobel Committee trying to use their platform there to affect Norwegian domestic politics.

In fact, Norway has voted twice to stay out of the EU but it is well known that Thorbjørn Jagland, the Chairman of the Peace Prize Committee and a man with an "interesting" political career, would like to see the question reopened and Norway vote the right way at last.

The all-important question remains: which president will go to Oslo to collect the prize? The secondary question is what will happen to the money? I suppose it could be thrown into the general melting pot of debt and default.

The message is clear

The news story might be in Norwegian but the message is clear enough. In a recent opinion poll 74.8 per cent said that they did not want to join the EU and only 17.2 per cent were in favour. Really cannot imagine why they should be so negative. Can anyone?

Good news from Norway

I was sent this link by the author of Iceland and the European Union, who can, of course, read Norwegian. He suggested I use Google translation. No need, I said. I get the gist of it by just looking at the pie chart. Oh and the title of the piece: Rekorddårlig oppslutning om EU. And I want a hat like the first lady's.

Norwegians are not easily influenced

Though Siv Jensen's anti-immigration and, therefore, described as right-wing extremist by some, notably the BBC, party lost in the local elections, nobody seems to think this has anything to do with Anders Behring Breivik, who ceased to be a member in 2006.

The government Labour party, who was supposed to garner the sympathy vote did not do much better than before going up by 1.9 per cent to 31.6 per cent.

According to observers, the Progress Party's decline was not directly linked to its former ties with the killer. The party had vehemently distanced itself from him, and had already seen its support fall prior to the attacks.

The party was hit in early 2011 by a sex scandal that was badly handled by the party leadership, according to political commentators. It then had to tone down much of its anti-immigration rhetoric during the election campaign.

Compared to its score in the 2009 general elections, the party received half the amount of support.

The setback "is largely explained by the fact that we had a very difficult year where we did not have a lot of opportunities to talk about our politics," party leader Siv Jensen told daily VG.

And the Norwegians refused to heed the call to turn out en masse to show that democracy flourishes in the country despite the horror of the twin attack in July. Then again, 62.6 per cent in local elections would be considered en masse here.

"After the national tragedy this summer, this election became a sort of referendum on our democracy which was supposed to translate into a strong mobilisation among voters," said Harald Stanghelle, a political commentator for Norway's newspaper of reference Aftenposten.

"This was not the case. I'm surprised and saddened," he told AFP.

Voter turnout came in at 62.6 percent, just above the 61.7 percent registered four years ago.

Others said they saw instead positive signs that Norway's democracy was not easily influenced one way or the other by the twin attacks.

"It's good that an unscrupulous child killer can have such a minimal effect on the political landscape," said Tore Gjerstad, a political correspondent for financial daily Dagens Naerinsgliv.

Quite so. Nevertheless, it is regrettable that the Progress Party should be losing support. I thought its leader rather impressive.

What are we to make of this?

RIANovosti (RIAN) and other outlets report that

Norway’s twin terror suspect Anders Behring Breivik trained at a secret paramilitary field camp in Belarus earlier this year, a Belarusian opposition politician said on Thursday, citing security sources.

The politician is Mikhail Reshetnikov, the head of the opposition Belarusian Party of Patriots and he gave his information to Gazeta.ru.

Reshetnikov also claimed Breivik had participated in “sabotage-terrorism drills” under a former Belarusian special service officer and that he had used a fake passport to enter Belarus.

“His codename in Belarus’s KGB was Viking,” he added. “Rumors say he also had a girlfriend in Belarus.”

“The theory that Belarus’ special forces were involved in training Anders Breivik seems, of course, far-fetched,” political expert Viktor Demidov was quoted by Gazeta.ru as saying.

“On the other hand, [Belarusian] President Alexander Lukashenko’s friendship with Muammar Gaddafi is no secret - neither is his fondness for Adolf Hitler.”

Norway is taking part in NATO operations in Libya and Gaddafi has threatened attacks against Europe.

If true or even half-true, this puts a slightly different perspective on the shooting and bombing. As Viktor Demidov points out, and as this blogger immediately recalled, Lee Harvey Oswald had also spent time in Minsk. [Here is the article in Russian.]

Bring it on!

Just had a wide-ranging discussion with the Oracle in which we covered issues such as the TPA hiring ToryBoy blogger par excellence and the general closing of ranks among them. No criticism to be allowed, no dissidents to be tolerated and, above all, the Conservative Party must be presented as the only possible outlet for euroscepticism. Could it be, as this blog has suggested before, that the next General Election is closer than we think?

Or could it be that the various Conservative sites, blogs and organizations are worried about the threatened crack-down on all right-wing sites, blogs and organizations in the wake of the Norwegian mass murder? If so, then their actions are useful in that we can now separate the wheat from the chaff. As one of the right-wing bloggers that might come under that attack (low down on the list as it does not have as many followers as some but a known right-wing blogger, nevertheless) I can only say: "Bring it on!". It is good to know that blogging is once again a worth while occupation, especially if you are on the right of the political spectrum. Or, to quote another great line: "Make my day, punk!". Punk? Well, there are many, starting with the Boy-King who is pretending to be this country's Prime Minister.

Pontification will follow

Every now and then I decide to take time off the internet and, indeed, my computer, fond of it though I am. I try to have a life though some people might say with very little success. This means that I am possibly the only person who has not pontificated on the events in Norway and Amy Winehouse's death. The former will follow as soon as I have read some of the latest comments on the subject (though that might be counter-productive) and on the latter I can only say that the death of a 27 year old is always a tragedy even when it is the outcome of her own behaviour. This was the destruction of a genuine talent by internal demons and the subsequent destruction of a life. However, I have no doubt that the media will manage to turn it into a circus and thus erase the sadness one feels. And that really is all I have to say on the subject.

The latest news from Norway is that the custody hearing is to be conducted in camera. Personally, I think this is a mistake. Anders Behring Breivik, the accused, wants to tell the world why he did what he did and the world ought to know. The world is not likely to sympathize with him, no matter what he says, and silencing him will not serve any purpose. I foresee many conspiracy theories being hatched and many more calls for strict control of the internet. Let the man speak.

Moving away from those two tragedies towards another one that has its own funny moments,

Moody's cut Greece's credit rating further into junk territory on Monday and said it was almost certain to slap a default tag on its debt as a result of a new EU rescue package.

It was the second rating agency to warn of a default after euro zone leaders and banks agreed last week that the private sector would shoulder part of the burden of a rescue deal that offers Greece more cash and easier loan terms to keep it afloat and avoid further contagion.

In the long term, this saga, as most of us know, will be of far greater importance.

One man arrested

As readers of this blog have undoubtedly seen one man has been arrested in Norway in connection with both the bomb attack and the shooting spree at the youth camp. An acquaintance who lives in Oslo, is safe but badly shaken, seems to know no more than we do here, which is understandable at this stage.

The suspect is reported by local media to have had links with right-wing extremists. He has been named as Anders Behring Breivik. Police searched his Oslo apartment overnight.

The BBC's Richard Galpin, near the island, says that Norway has had problems with neo-Nazi groups in the past but the assumption was that such groups had been largely eliminated and did not pose a significant threat.

Police say they are investigating whether the attacks were the work of one man or whether he had help.

For what it is worth, I am finding it hard to believe that one man could be responsible for both attacks without any help at all.

From Norway

The Norwegian police think the two attacks are linked. The PM was supposed to attend the youth camp today. Whether that has anything to do with the timing is not clear. The Telegraph has a timeline and the Global Jihad terror group has claimed responsibility.

The BBC says that it has been confirmed that the gunman has been arrested and that he is Norwegian, whatever that might mean in the circumstances.

Norway's Justice Minister says that his information is that the arrested man is Norwegian but he (the Minister) does not know much else about him (the gunman). Reuters also points out that at present it is hard to tell exactly who is responsible for either or both the attacks, with pointers to both Islamists and possible right-wing extremists though there are claims by extremists that this is a "warning" to Norway and other European countries.

Norway says no

Not to EU membership this time as that is not really on the agenda with any political party but to recognizing the non-existent Palestinian state (or one of them, anyway.

Norway is not on the verge of recognizing a Palestinian state inside the 1967 lines, Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said on the eve of a Middle East trip that will bring him to Israel on Tuesday.

Støre, in an interview that appeared on the Norwegian Broadcast Corporation (NRK) website on Sunday, said he was not ready to recognize a Palestinian state. He said this would only be a symbolic action and that the efforts now should be concentrated on negotiations that would bring about a “real result.”

And yet Norway was tipped as one of the first European countries to do so.

How can they possibly manage outside the EU?

When it comes to Norway, rather well by the sound of it.

The New Year’s outlook for the Norwegian economy is even better than prospects were a few months ago, according to several local economists. They predict solid economic growth in 2011.

“We’re working now at adjusting our projections upwards,” Harald Magnus Andresssen, chief economist at First Securities in Oslo told newspaper Dagens Næringsliv (DN). Andressen said he sees several signs that demand from both business and households is rising both in Norway and internationally.

Other economists are less optimistic but remain reasonably hopeful. Indeed, considerably more hopeful than those inside the EU.

Kjersti Haugland, senior economist at DnB NOR Markets, is less optimist than Andressen but still expects “better development” in the economy. DnB NOR expects the mainland economy (excluding offshore oil and gas) to grow by 2.5 percent in 2011.

“We still see a quite moderate upswing, but it is moving gradually upwards,” Haugland told DN. Ida Wolden Bache at Handelsbanken agrees, predicting mainland economic growth of 2.6 percent.

Most of the economists polled by DN expect the unemployment rate in Norway to remain low, at around 3.6 percent, while incomes will rise by between 3.4 and 3.7 percent and private consumption will rise by around 3.5 percent.

I bet they are regretting voting twice not to join the European project.

Good news from the Nordic countries

One does not have to be able to speak Norwegian to be able to understand this headline: Nordmenn skeptiske til EU. Yes, indeed, those pesky Nordmenn are very skeptiske towards the EU and who can blame them as the Commission demands another 50 per cent in North Sea fishing.

The European Commission said cod stocks in the Kattegat, between Denmark and Sweden, in the Irish Sea, and west of Scotland "are no showing no signs of recovery."

"The Commission is therefore proposing 50 percent reductions in these total allowable catches," a statement said.

North Sea cod took a hit in 2008 when a greater proportion of the stock was caught than in any year since 1999, while closures and cod-avoidance schemes had failed to protect it and had had little effect on fishing patterns, it said.

As management of cod in the area is co-managed with Norway, the EU hopes to have talks with Oslo on redressing the situation.

Whereas, if Norway were in the EU they would simply have to obey the rules as they will be passed at the Fisheries Ministers' meeting in December. But, of course, there is no difference between our position in the EU and Norway's outside it, as we are told ad nauseam by various europhiliacs.

So it is not altogether surprising that only 24 per cent of those asked support EU membership for Norway. No matter who conducts the poll, there has been a strong majority against EU membership in Norway since 2005. I don't think they will be applying any time soon.

Meanwhile, across the sea in Iceland, the polls continue to tell the same tale. 60 per cent against, 26 per cent in favour and the rest undecided. Even if all the undecided suddenly decided to be in favour (an unlikely scenario), those against would still outnumber them.

Norwegians want to stay out

Le Monde reports (well quotes AFP but at least the agency is credited) that opposition to Norway's EU membership is growing in the country. According to the latest opinion poll, 66.9 per cent are against, 24.6 per cent are in favour and 9.1 per cent don't know or can't be bothered to reply. Norwegians, let us not forget, voted No to membership twice before and, despite all apocalyptic predictions, have been flourishing outside the EU.

Why does this not surprise me?

A curious little item on Reason.com about Norway where the Ministry of Children, Equality, and Social Inclusion (yes, I'd laugh if we did not have similar institutions here) nominated as the 2009 Role Model of the Year a certain Mahdi Hassan "for his tireless work on behalf on indigent local youths". Very admirable, indeed, though one suspects that getting jobs might help some of those local youths out of their indigence. Let that pass.

A far bigger problems is Mahdi Hassan's attitude to homosexuals. According to Norwegian journalist Rita Karlsen

But now comes the news that Hassan isn’t working hard to include everybody. As early as last summer, Hassan told the newspaper Arbeidets Rett that he wants a ban on homosexuality, based on the Koran: “Homosexuality is prohibited in the Koran, and I believe in my religion.”

Now Arbeidets Rett has asked Hassan if that is still his opinion, and it is. The head of the Norwegian LGBT Association, Karen Pinholt, doesn’t thinks this man is a good role model: “It appears as if the Ministry of Inclusion has forgotten to include gay people here.”

He is, of course, allowed to hold his opinions but to have him as a Role Model of the Year in a country that prides itself on its tolerance and open-mindedness seems a little odd. Surely, the Left would have protested as soon as news of this came out.

Not so but far otherwise:

But the head of the Socialist Left Party in Tynset, Stein Petter Løkken, feels that it is just fine that Hassan would like to see homosexuality forbidden: “There is freedom of speech in Norway and in the Tynset Socialist Left Party we consider it unproblematic that Mahdi is opposed in principle to homosexuality,” Løkken told Arbeidets Rett. “It is in accordance with his religion.”

One cannot help wondering whether Mr Løkken's attitude would be the same if it had been a Christian Minister who had expressed those views. Intyriguingly, Mahdi Hassan's views on the position of women is not being quoted. Can't help wondering what that might be.