Curious developments in Hungary

Rumours of this reached me a couple of weeks ago and the story is being confirmed through a secretly made tape as well as denied officially while investigated by the public prosecutor. So, provisionally, we might say it is true.

Like most European countries, Hungary has been trying to control smoking in public and has now moved towards controlling the sale of tobacco products, allegedly, in order to wean young people away from smoking.

Unfortunately, as this story makes clear, there are problems in the system. There are now far fewer outlets and all those who had sold tobacco in the past had to apply for licence. Astonishingly, licences were awarded to people close to the ruling Fidesz party, often, as in the case of the town described in this article Szekszárd, people directly related to those in power.

Now we are 28

I do not believe in either personal or national predestination and I think Sir Karl Popper said everything that needed to be said about historicism but there are times when I look at the European Union and think that the whole nasty mess will just have to play itself out to the end. Of course, after that it will leave an even nastier mess.

Yesterday (when I started writing this blog) saw another, smallish enlargement: Croatia became the 28th member of the EU and opinion in the country seems rather split. The BBC is trying to concentrate on the rejoicing but other notes sound as well.

But correspondents say enthusiasm for the EU in the country has been dampened by the eurozone crisis, and Croatia's own economic problems.

President Josipovic may have been excited and full of joy:

President Josipovic said it was "a great and joyful day for our homeland".

"This the day when we open a new chapter in the thick book of our history," he added.

Earlier he told a meeting of EU and regional leaders: "The accession of Croatia to the European Union is confirmation that each one of us belongs to the European democratic and cultural set of values."

Croatian officials then unveiled EU signs and removed customs posts at the borders with Slovenia, the first former Yugoslav republic to have joined the bloc, and with Hungary.

Others are a little less happy:

But with one in five unemployed and Croatia's national debt officially classed as junk, some Croatians feel joining an economic bloc with its own serious troubles will do little to improve their prospects.

The Wall Street Journal, which, for reasons unknown refers to the European Union as "Europe's club of democracies" also thinks that the enthusiasm is a little damper than it ought to be:

Still, the public mood here is far from celebratory. The country of 4.4 million is in the throes of a painful recession. Unemployment is more than 20%. And EU membership, once seen as a glittering prize, is now viewed with mounting skepticism. "We don't know what to expect from joining," said Dragutin Bobic, a 54-year-old farmer. "We'd be better off on our own."

Croatia's annual economic output per capita is 61% of the EU average. Its government budget deficit exceeds EU limits, and public debt has been rising. The rate of youth unemployment is among the highest in Europe.

Others are worried about an invasion of other East European workers though why that should happen in the circumstances is a mystery. The BBC reminded us that the Croatians voted by a large majority in favour of joining this sinking ship and so they did: by 66.27 per cent. Unfortunately, the turn-out was 43.51 per cent but that is the sort of thing we rarely find out from the media. Mind you, that is still better than the first election for the Toy Parliament, which saw a turn-out of 21 per cent.

Astonishingly enough, Hot Air put up a posting about something that cannot be that important to most Americans and gave all the pros and cons as well.

And on to the next one. Negotiations with Serbia will begin next year. This will not end until there is a complete and total collapse, I am telling you.

Nabucco is no more

Pending Azerbaijan's official announcement on Friday, we can say that the Nabucco pipeline, intended to lessen certain EU member states' reliance on Russian gas, is no more.

EUObserver reports that Austrian firm OMV, part of the Nabucco consortium, said on Wednesday (26 June) that Azerbaijan, the gas supplier, has opted for the rival "Tap" pipeline instead.

"[Azerbaijan's] Shah Deniz II consortium informed OMV, as a shareholder of Nabucco Gas Pipeline International, about the decision on their preferred gas transportation route to Europe. The Nabucco West project was not selected by the consortium," it noted on its website.

While Tap is also intended to bring "10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year from the Caspian region to EU countries in the next five or so years to Europe" by-passing Russia, it is less useful.

Tap is to run from the Turkish border via Greece, Albania and the Adriatic Sea, to Italy. Nabucco West was to have run from Turkey via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, to Austria.

Greece depends on Russian gas for 58 percent of consumption, while Italy's dependence is just 22 percent.

Neither country was badly hit in the 2008/2009 Russia-Ukraine gas crisis.

But in Bulgaria, which depends on Russia 100 percent, street lights went out in Sofia and electricity supplies to hospitals were put at risk. Dependency is also high in Hungary (56%) and Austria (52%).

If these plans go ahead certain countries will remain vulnerable to Russian pressure and, not to put too fine a point on it, blackmail. On the other hand, of course, Russia badly needs to sell its gas as its income relies almost entirely on raw produce like gas and oil.

Then again, President Ilhan Aliyev of Azerbaijan is no slouch when it comes to using the country's gas reserves to extract various concessions from the EU (though he is less likely to start putting pressures on individual member states) and is said to be delaying signing the Tap agreement till the autumn, that is the next presidential elections.

Interim Czech Prime Minister appointed

After the scandalous resignation of the Czech Prime Minister the President and well known alcoholic, Miloš Zeman, had to look around for an interim government leader. He has now found one:

President Miloš Zeman has appointed economist Jiří Rusnok to succeed Petr Nečas as prime minister of the Czech Republic. Mr. Rusnok, who is 52 and was finance minister under then PM Zeman for just over a year in the early 2000s, will head a caretaker cabinet.

This seems to be following a certain fashion in European countries for "technocrat" governments that appear to be no more successful than political ones. So far as anyone can tell neither the left nor the right in the Czech Chamber of Deputies is happy with the choice.

Anniversaries

I tend to save anniversaries for another blog but there are two today that are important to the way we see the world and they have to be mentioned.

It is 110 years since the birth of George Orwell, the man who defined much of our modern political thinking (what had been left undefined by Dostoyevsky) and whose ability to grasp political reality despite his left-wing socialist outlook, remains unrivalled. Happy Birthday Eric Blair/George Orwell.

It is 63 years since North Korea invaded South Korea, thus pushing into the open what had been in the shadows: the new world division after 1945 between the West and Communism. The invasion would not have happened if Stalin did not feel reasonably secure because extensive Soviet espionage had given him an ability to rival the United States in the nuclear race; and the war might not have happened if the Soviet Union had not, temporarily, vacated its seat in the UN Security Council, thus allowing that organization to take the one and only sensible decision in its entire history.

Referendum Bill presented

James Whalley, who, astonishingly, drew first place in the ballot for Private Members' Bills presented his European Union (Referendum) Bill 2013 -2014 yesterday to the House for its First Reading, which is really just a formality. Second Reading is scheduled for July 5, a Friday as Private Members' Bills are debated on that day.

In the meantime there has been a certain amount of displacement activity going on. As ever it relies on the stupendous ignorance most eurosceptics display about the British Constitution. Benedict Brogan talks portentously about what will happen next but only the very ignorant will be surprised by his article. What happens next is exactly what happens with all Bills.

The Express thinks that this takes us closer to "free Britain", which is nonsensical. It takes closer, possibly, to having a referendum some time in the future, assuming nothing much of importance happens in the meantime in the European Union but, as we know or ought to know, having a referendum is not the same as voting to get out or even knowing how we get out. The present state of popular opinion would indicate that the stayers-in will win with no great difficulty.

The biggest of all attempts at displacement activity is the invitation by "Grant Shapps and/or some clever boffin at CCHQ" to invite you, me and everyone else to co-sponsor the Bill. The way to do it is to click on to the right page on Facebook and put your signature to the Bill. There is just one minor problem with this. Oh, a very unimportant problem but I do think someone needs to mention it. A Bill is sponsored by members of the House of Commons or the House of Lords, depending on where it starts. This one is starting in the Lower House and has been co-sponsored by a number of MPs, not all of whom can be called eurosceptic. Members of the public do not sponsor Bills. Putting your name on that page may give you a warm fuzzy feeling of doing something but it is a pointless exercise. 

Iceland definitely not coming in

Earlier this month EUObserver reported a speech by the President of Iceland, Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, in which he cast yet more doubt on the idea that Iceland will join the European Union in the foreseeable (or, indeed, less foreseeable) future.

The European Union is not "greatly interested" in concluding negotiations with Iceland in the next few years, president Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson told parliament Thursday. Brussels doesn't want to risk a rejection in a referendum and is unlikely to develop a permanent fisheries policy that Iceland could accept, he said.

Here is the speech delivered to the Icelandic Parliament, the Althingi, on June 6, in full (and in English). Among other things to do with the Constitution of Iceland, its history and continuing importance, the President said:

After the turmoil of the past few years, the Constitution of our Republic is once again firmly in place; the will of the people as the driving force for action and determining the preservation of elements of supreme importance.

The general election delivered important messages regarding the Constitution and also on the future of our sovereignty. A strong majority of the newly-elected parliament is bound by the promise that Iceland will stand outside the European Union and the issue will be placed in the hands of the people.

In a way it was natural, four years ago when ominous uncertainty loomed over our economy and that of the Western world, that the Althingi should see the attractions of opening membership negotiations with the European Union, particularly with regard to the euro, which then seemed to rest on strong foundations; but now we face a different reality. No one knows along what lines the European Union may develop, and the euro zone is mired in a deeper recession than the economies of Northern Europe, America and Asia.

Moreover, the European Union’s negotiations with Iceland have gone very slowly. Already they have lasted longer than when other Nordic EFTA states – Sweden and Finland – made their approaches on membership. The last 3 parliamentary term came to an end before the negotiators had started to examine those aspects of the application that are of central importance for Iceland.

The way events have unfolded, and also my discussions with many influential people in Europe, have convinced me that notwithstanding its friendly declarations, the European Union is not in fact greatly interested in concluding negotiations with us in the next few years.

Although I have been told by representatives of Open Europe that Iceland is clearly looking for a better deal just as Britain is in her "renegotiations", it seems to me that the President was clear in his statement as the people of Iceland had been in the way they had cast their votes. (Yes, I did try to explain yet again to Open Europe that the position of a country that is outside the EU is different from the one inside but I am not sure whether they bothered to listen.)

Yesterday's news is even less equivocal.

Iceland has decided to end its bid to join the European Union (EU). The news was announced by the country's foreign minister, Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, to the European Commission.

"This is how democracy works," said the minister three weeks after being appointed to the recently elected Icelandic government.

He stated that both parties in the new Icelandic government had fought the idea of EU accession.

In fact, the European Commission was told this on June 13  and took it badly. Well, one member of it took it badly.

Speaking during a frosty press conference with reporters on Thursday (13 June), Stefan Fule, the Czech commissioner responsible for EU membership bids, admitted that Iceland's decision was a personal blow.

"It was not easy for me as a person (to take the decision)," said Fule. But he added: "I am also a professional and I respect without any questions and any doubt, the will of elected representative and citizens".

He also maintained that talks on Iceland's accession to the EU should still be completed. "We remain fully committed to continuing and completing the process."

That would be the process Iceland has just aborted. What exactly is the EU going to continue and complete?

For those who want to read the words of freedom, here is the speech given by Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson, the Prime Minister of Iceland on June 17, the country's National Day.