Somehow I doubt it. It has always seemed clear to me that Brown will go to the wire and not call an election till spring 2010. I still think that and events so far have not really been pushing him in a different direction.
Opinion polls show that there is a general mood of fed-upness with all the main parties. That is not a problem with the European elections as people can either stay at home (most always do) or vote for one of the smaller parties, notably UKIP or the BNP. Curiously the Greens are not benefiting from this disillusionment with the big boys.
Conservative canvassers self-righteously report that people out there want an election. Do they? I wonder. It all depends how you put the question. Do you think Brown should call an election in view of all these scandals might well get a yes. But what if you ask it differently: do you want Brown to call an election in which the same people with their hands in the sweet jar will be standing to consolidate their positions? You might get a very different answer.
Then there is the question of the House of Commons powers. It looks like the Speaker might well resign this afternoon, prodded by the Prime Minister, not because the House has asserted its rights and powers. Iain Dale thinks that he will then continue to act as Speaker until the election of a new one and nobody will mind. He may well be right but it will be a sad fizzing out of a so-called revolution.
That will leave the basic problem in place: Parliament has lost much of its legislative power to the EU and various quangos and its members have abandoned all attempts to hold the Government to account even when it is still within their powers to do so. What are the honourable members going to do about any of that?
Meanwhile Sky has published a poll that shows a third of voters seriously thinking of voting for a smaller party even in an early general election. One cannot rely on polls, of course, as people may well change their minds with an election campaign unfolding, but if these sort of results keep appearing, I suspect that Conservative call for an early election will lose some of its vehemence.
Last Stand on the Loire
7 hours ago