The expertise is overwhelming

Or not. We still do not know how event in Egypt and other Arab countries will pan out but there is no shortage of predictions and blame being apportioned. Ari Shavit in Ha'aretz blames the West for abandoning their good ally (or so he thinks) Mubarak though it is not entirely clear what he thinks the West could have done. Of course, it could have stopped the phenomenal amount of aid money that pours into Arab countries and Egypt in particular but Mr Shavit does not seem to be saying that. He does think for some unknown reason that Obama's presidency is for keeps (an unlikely notion given the American system) and that power will now move towards such immensely successful states as Brazil and Russia. As ever, "expertise" is easy.

Here is an article by somebody who really is an expert and has been for many years, Amir Taheri. For example, he was the first by some months if not years who started saying that it was not really the Mullahs who had power in Iran but the security services and some parts of the military. He was pooh-poohed by "experts" until he turned out to be correct. His analysis, somewhat more optimistic than that of those self-appointed "experts", of events in Egypt is well worth reading.