Polish election

I am taking time out from fruitless discussions with members of the Conservative Party who assure me that a referendum on the EU would hurt the country because "it is the economy, stupid". The referendum on the EU, in my opinion would hurt the eurosceptic cause but would hardly affect the country. I tried the bombard them with question tactics: do these people know how much of our economy is controlled, one way or another, by the EU; have they read the treaties and the various directives and regulations; have they understood Qualified Majority Voting; and so on. The response I got mostly was that we are in this and so we had better stay in for the duration (which is what we are likely to do, sadly) and, anyway, the government has the right idea by fighting for Britain's national interests within the EU. I rest my case: we need an in/out referendum like a hole in the head.

Anyway, I am taking time out to survey other countries. First up, Poland, where parliamentary elections are taking place today. Voice of America reports

Opinion polls in the past week showed Tusk's party favored by 31 percent of respondents, and the opposition conservative Law and Justice Party of former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski with 21 percent.

Analysts say no party will win an outright majority, and those predicting a Tusk victory say he will likely be forced to form a ruling coalition similar to the one forged with the Peasants' Party after 2007 polls.

Official results are expected by early Monday.

Pre-election polls also indicated that three other parties would also win parliamentary seats in the election. The new socially and economically liberal Palikot Support Movement, the Democratic Left Alliance and the current coalition partner, the Polish People Party.

If Tusk's Civic Platform wins it will be the first time in post-Communist Poland that a party has held power beyond one term.

The BBC thinks that the contest will be fairly close. Reuters agrees. Much depends on the turn-out. According to Polish Radio News things do not look very good:

The National Election Commission has announced that at 18.00 CET, turnout was 39.6 percent, down on the same time, four years ago. Turnout during the 2007 election was officially 53.8 percent.

Polls are about to close, as Poland is one hour ahead of the UK.

UPDATE: Exit polls say that Tusk's party is likely to win though no word yet on the turn-out. Official results expected tomorrow.

A few more updates here. Looks like Civic Platform will be largest party and, probably, the same coalition will be re-negotiated. However, the one to watch is the Palikot Movement that was created last year and has achieved 10 per cent of the vote.

Janusz Palikot, who founded his new party only last year after he left the ruling Civic Platform because he thought they were too socially conservative, was overjoyed at getting 10 percent of the vote, nationwide, according to exit polls.

“This is phenomenal. Eighteen months ago, opinion polls gave the Palikot Movement from one to two percent [in support],” he said tonight.

Palikot has taken votes from socially liberal Civic Platform supporters and the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), support for which has fallen to 7.7 percent from 13 percent in the last elections four years ago.

The Catholic Church may well find that these people are more formidable than Tusk's lot.