It is possible that this is the only political blog around that has not mentioned the Leaders' Debate at all, though the Boss reporting on the electricity usage on the night is an interesting way of approaching the subject.
The truth is that numerous debates in the United States have proved that performance in them and immediate reaction on the part of the audience makes no difference to the voting pattern. They are, in other words, an expensive waste of time and, as usual, whenever there is something useless in the American political world, we adopt it. Somehow we never seem to be equally keen on adopting more useful aspects.
So, let me be quite frank: I am unimpressed by the sudden rise in the Lib-Dims' popularity just because Nick Clegg seems to have performed better than the other two on the night. In parenthesis, I might ask, having not bothered to watch or listen to any of it, just how bad were those two. Apart from the blip, opinion polls have been surprisingly consistent with the odd point or two (statistically unimportant) moving this way and that.
Conservatives are stuck around 40 per cent, or just under, Labour around 32 per cent or under and Lib-Dims around 23 per cent. The permutations fall and rise but whichever way one looks at it there is always an unusually large group that does not support either of the three main parties. Astonishingly, Conservative chatterers and analysts who get excited by one point going from Labour to them or back again seem completely uninterested in that group. Yet the election may well be decided by them. Will they stay at home or will they vote for one of the smaller parties? If the latter, which will it be? Will enough of them vote for UKIP to make a difference? These are the only questions, in my opinion, that are worth asking about this incredibly dull election. As for the rest, we could have the election tomorrow or, in order to be traditional, this Thursday. No party is going to say anything we have not heard hundreds of times before and no voter is going to have a sudden revelation.
However, UKIP has come up with an interesting piece of news: Lady Pearson of Rannoch has decided to join the fight more directly. She is standing for Parliament in the constituency of Kensington and Chelsea. One in the eye of Samantha Cameron, I think.
I note with some satisfaction that intrade.com and the bookies have a hung parliament (I and many others would prefer them hanged) as an odds on favorite.
ReplyDeleteThat was very clever of you, Dave.
Conservatives are stuck around 40 per cent, or just under, Labour around 32 per cent or under and Lib-Dims around 23 per cent. The permutations fall and rise but whichever way one looks at it there is always an unusually large group that does not support either of the three main parties.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure about the logical connection in the phrase "there is always an unusually ...". Nor about "either of the three".
Nick
Why not, Nick? The point is that the group that does not support any of the three (maybe either was the wrong word) is quite important. It might make all the difference in a closely fought election.
ReplyDeleteHelen, the "always" and the "either" confused me.
ReplyDeleteIf what you meant to say was "whichever way one looks at it there is an unusually large group that does not support any of the three main parties." then that's something that I can agree with.
Nick
But also this comment on politicalbetting.com rings true:
"Most voters DO NOT LIKE Lib Dem policies, when asked. See the polls.
This is all about the massive, angry, f*ck-them-all, post-expensesgate protest vote coalescing around the candidate whose success is most likely to annoy and distress the two main parties.
And the crowd is wise. Voting UKIP, BNP, Green does not frighten Brown or Cameron. Neither does abstaining."
Except that there are now three main parties and I am not sure politicalbetting.com has caught up with that. The general anger goes beyond expenses, which was just another thing people were annoyed about. I wouldn't say Cameron is not worried about UKIP votes. There have been signs of a concerted campaign against individuals in that party on the Tories' and their pet journos' part. Unfortunately, personal campaigns do not work. It is taking the Tories some time to find that out.
ReplyDelete